Fuel prices edge down as Qatar warns energy shock yet to peak

Average pump prices across the UK edged down again over the past week, but the news from the Gulf gives little reason to expect quick or large cuts. FuelWise's figures for 20 October show unleaded (E10) averaging 174.1p a litre, down 0.4p in seven days, while standard diesel averages 199.2p, down 0.3p. Meanwhile Qatar's deputy prime minister warned on Monday that the energy shock from the war involving Iran has not yet peaked.

For drivers, the practical message is unchanged: the falls are small, so where you fill up matters far more than when.

What changed at the pumps this week

Forecourts are still cutting more often than they raise prices. In the 24 hours to this morning, FuelWise recorded 1,392 price changes, of which 939 were cuts and 453 were rises. Over seven days there were 10,088 changes: 7,792 cuts and 2,296 rises, with 4,527 forecourts moving at least one price.

That flurry of activity adds up to only modest savings. The typical prices today are:

• E10 unleaded: 174.1p average, down 0.4p on the week (petrol prices)
• Standard diesel: 199.2p average, down 0.3p (diesel prices)
• Super unleaded (E5): 191.4p average, down 0.7p
• Premium diesel: 218.5p average, down 0.2p

Prices were flat over the last day for all four fuels. FuelWise's latest weekly Price Pulse found petrol fell 0.5p and diesel 0.7p in the week to 18 October.

Diesel remains about 25p a litre dearer than E10 on average, and its median price is 199.9p, meaning half of forecourts reporting diesel charge 199.9p or more.

The Gulf: warnings that the shock has not peaked

Speaking at the Global Security Forum in Doha on 19 October, Qatar's deputy prime minister, Sheikh Saoud bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, said: "We haven't reached the peak with respect to energy," according to Al Jazeera. He warned of further repercussions in the coming days and months, and argued that tolls should not be charged on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, saying uncertainty over the waterway would ultimately affect consumers worldwide.

The strait remains the main pressure point. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that at least 12 ships were attacked in the week to 16 October, Al Jazeera reported on 17 October, adding that many attacked vessels were not reporting to it. Oil flows through Hormuz were 11.6 million barrels a day in the seven days to 13 October, about 68% of the pre-war level, according to Kpler figures cited in the same report. The US military's Central Command said 400 ships and 100 million barrels of oil had moved through the strait over the past week, while Iran has said Washington is exaggerating the numbers.

Saudi Arabia has also come under attack. On 13 October the Houthis hit an Aramco administrative building in Dhahran, Al Jazeera reported, citing Saudi Arabia's energy ministry, which said no one was injured.

Oil near $110 and diesel still tight

Those attacks have kept crude expensive. Brent touched $110 a barrel on 16 October for the first time since May, according to Al Jazeera. Trading Economics data put Brent at about $109.80 on 20 October, up about 9% over the past month and about 79% higher than a year ago.

The International Energy Agency's October Oil Market Report, published on 14 October, explains why diesel in particular stays dear. It said:

• Global diesel prices have eased from all-time highs of more than $200 a barrel in September but are still nearly double the price of crude and their pre-crisis levels.
• Disruption to Middle East and Russian exports has drained diesel stocks ahead of winter, and the IEA does not expect lost inventories to be rebuilt before the second half of 2027.
• As higher freight costs spread across tanker markets, delivered diesel prices in importing regions, including Europe, could rise again in the coming weeks.

The IEA also said Gulf crude exports recovered strongly in September, but renewed attacks in the region leave that recovery fragile.

Russia adds to the strain. The IEA noted that Russian diesel production and exports have slumped in recent months because of damage to refineries from Ukrainian drones.

For UK drivers, this helps explain why diesel has stayed close to £2 a litre even with Brent quoted between about $107 and $110 in recent reports: on the IEA's figures, the global diesel market is far tighter than the crude market.

Where fuel is cheapest

Northern Ireland remains the cheapest part of the UK by a clear margin. Its average E10 price is 166.5p and diesel 191.4p, about 7.6p and 7.8p below the UK averages. It also had the biggest weekly diesel fall of any region, at 0.9p. The five cheapest council areas for unleaded are all in Northern Ireland, led by Ards and North Down and Belfast at 165.7p. See the Northern Ireland fuel prices page for local figures.

In Great Britain, the North East (172.5p) and Yorkshire and the Humber (172.9p) have the lowest average E10 prices. The North East also saw petrol fall 0.6p on the week, and Scotland 0.7p, the largest fall of any region, though Scotland's average of 175p is still above the UK figure. The South East is the dearest region for unleaded at 176p, and the dearest council area is West Berkshire at 182p.

Full regional figures are on the fuel prices by area page.

Supermarkets and motorways

Supermarket forecourts still offer the lowest typical prices. Their average is 171.6p for E10 and 196.4p for diesel, against 174.8p and 200p at other non-motorway forecourts. That gap of about 3.2p a litre on petrol is worth roughly £1.75 on a 55-litre fill.

Among the major brands, Sainsbury's (171.6p E10, 196.4p diesel) and Morrisons (171.7p E10) have the lowest averages, followed closely by Asda and Tesco. BP and Shell average 176.6p and 176.8p for E10. In Northern Ireland, Maxol averages 166.5p for E10. Compare brands on the brands page.

Motorway services remain the most expensive place to fill up, averaging 191.2p for E10 and 214.8p for diesel. That is about 17p and 15.6p above the UK averages.

What it means for drivers

Prices are drifting down slowly, but the IEA's warnings about diesel supply and the continuing attacks in the Gulf mean there is little sign of a sharp fall. The cheapest and dearest E10 prices in the UK today are 157.9p and 209.9p, a spread of 52p a litre, so checking local prices before you set off is still the most reliable way to save. The live price map shows every forecourt's latest price.