Petrol and diesel prices as oil falls below $95 after US midterms

Oil had its sharpest fall in months this week after the US midterm elections. UK pump prices are still edging down, but slowly. On 5 November the average litre of E10 petrol costs 170.7p across 7,222 forecourts, 1.6p less than a week ago. Diesel averages 198.2p, down just 0.4p over the same week.

What changed: oil falls below $95

Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell by more than 8% on Wednesday 4 November. According to Reuters, both Brent and US crude settled at their lowest level since 31 August. Prices kept falling on Thursday morning, with Brent at $93.65 a barrel at 02:11 GMT, the fourth daily fall in a row.

That is a big change in a few days: ATV Today reports that Brent closed at $117.64 on 30 October.

The trigger was the US vote. Bloomberg reported that Brent fell as low as $93.22 during Wednesday's session. Traders were betting that the Democrats' sweep of Congress could bring a quicker end to the war with Iran, which Bloomberg says has pushed oil up about 50% this year. Prices fell further after Vice-President JD Vance blamed the Republican losses on the conflict. Bloomberg also reported that President Donald Trump told the Financial Times he had no immediate plans to step up the fighting.

According to CBS News, the President said the war was partly to blame for the result. He also told The Wall Street Journal he did not regret it: "I would have done it again." Qatar, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are understood to be passing messages in indirect talks between Washington and Tehran.

Why it may not last

Analysts quoted by Reuters warned against assuming oil will stay this low. June Goh of Sparta Commodities said there would be "more volatility ahead" because the route to a full settlement is uncertain and global strategic reserves are very low. Mukesh Sahdev of XAnalysts pointed out that the new Congress does not take office until January.

The Strait of Hormuz, the route for most Gulf oil, is still dangerous. On Wednesday Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said four oil tankers had caught fire after hitting mines there, CBS News reported. Even so, Reuters said analysts believe shipments through the strait are back near pre-war levels, though they cost more. JPMorgan estimates that the world oil market was in surplus by 1.1 million barrels a day in September and 1.4 million in October.

OPEC+ is not adding to supply for now. Its core members agreed on 1 November to keep December output targets unchanged, according to Reuters as reported by Beaver Online. The full group meets on 29 November to set quotas for 2027.

Why diesel is falling more slowly than petrol

FuelWise's figures show the gap clearly. Over the past 30 days, average E10 has fallen 4.0p and diesel only 1.8p. A litre of diesel now costs 27.5p more than a litre of E10.

Crude oil is only part of the story. The problem with diesel is refining and supply:

• In its October Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said diesel would stay tight well into 2027. It said global diesel benchmarks were still nearly double the price of crude oil.
• The IEA said exports of refined fuels from the Middle East were still below half their pre-war level in September, while supply from Russia was also lower.
• Bloomberg reported that Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have pushed fuel prices up. It also said US diesel stocks have fallen below 100 million barrels for the first time since 2003, which suggests a ceasefire would bring little immediate relief.

Is the cheaper oil reaching the pumps?

Forecourts are cutting prices far more often than raising them. In the past seven days FuelWise recorded 12,161 price changes at 5,865 forecourts. Of those changes, 11,225 were cuts and 936 were rises. In the past 24 hours alone there were 2,126 cuts and 118 rises.

Most of oil's fall came on Wednesday, so it may not yet be reflected at the pumps.

The campaign group FairFuelUK says it will track prices over the next 7 to 28 days. Its founder, Howard Cox, said: "Oil has crashed. So the clock starts now." He has called on retailers to pass on lower costs as quickly as they put prices up.

The pound is also helping a little, because oil is priced in dollars. Sterling rose to $1.349 on Thursday, heading for its highest close since 14 September, Reuters reported. The Bank of England was expected to raise interest rates on Thursday to tackle inflation driven by energy costs.

Where fuel is cheapest today

Where you fill up still matters more than this week's falls. FuelWise's averages for 5 November:

Filling a 55-litre tank with E10 at a typical supermarket forecourt costs about £12 less than at a typical motorway service station. For diesel the saving is about £11.

Northern Ireland remains the cheapest part of the UK. E10 averages 162.9p and diesel 190.8p. The five council areas with the cheapest E10 are all there, led by Mid Ulster and Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon at 162.1p. The dearest council area for E10 is West Berkshire at 180.0p.

In Great Britain, the North East has the cheapest E10 at 168.9p. The South East has the dearest E10 at 172.3p, although it also had the biggest weekly fall, 1.9p.

Among brands, Asda, Morrisons, Texaco, Sainsbury's and Tesco all average between 168.7p and 169.2p for E10. Among brands with more than 300 forecourts, Tesco has the lowest diesel average at 195.3p. BP and Shell both average above 173p for E10 and 200p for diesel. See the brands page for the full list.

What drivers can do

• Compare before you fill. The live price map shows every forecourt's latest Fuel Finder price, and prices are being cut every day.
• Avoid the motorway if you can. Motorway petrol averages about 22p a litre more than at supermarkets.
• Watch diesel closely. If you drive a diesel car, check the diesel prices page. Diesel is falling more slowly than petrol, so the gap between the cheapest and dearest forecourts matters more.
• Stick with E10 if your car can use it. Super unleaded (E5) averages 187.8p, about 17p a litre more than E10. Track petrol on the petrol prices page.

For last week's full figures, see the Price Pulse for the week to 1 November.